Modelling results suggest that worsened PM10 levels will coincide spatially with many of the most densely populated areas of non-small-cell lung carcinoma the country (Figure 8).Figure 10Spatial distribution of the increased number of attributable cases estimated by grid cell (10 �� 10km2) related to short-term PM10 exposure for future climate.As could be seen from Figure 10, the highest increase of the number of attributable cases under a future climate scenario would be expected in the Northern coastal region and Lisbon metropolitan area achieving a maximum augment of 11 cases by grid cell. The results presented in Table 1 highlight that the changes on the PM10 concentrations lead to a significant increase in the number of deaths in the future for most districts, especially those with the larger urban areas.
additionally the Lisbon district is characterised by larger population size and the current mortality rate is higher, and the Porto district is the most affected (about 31% of total national deaths), reaching two times higher values than expected for the Lisbon district due to different prognosis of future pollution levels for these areas.Table 1Increase of mortality attributable to PM10 pollution levels under the climate scenario in comparison with the reference situation. Values presented in parenthesis correspond to the 95% confidence interval (CI).On the other hand, South of Portugal presents the lowest changes in the average mortality rate (Faro district: 0.9 (95% CI 0.6�C1.2)) since the PM10 concentrations projected for 2100 will not increase significantly in comparison with the current pollution levels.
At national level, about 203 (95% CI 137�C271) more premature deaths per year are projected for 2100 in comparison to the current scenario due to indirect effect of climate change.3.3. Prognosis of Health Impact: Future Pollution versus LegislationAdditionally to the impact assessment based on prognosis of future pollution, the benefit for human health related with potential reduction of PM10 to the legislation limit value (daily average concentration of 50��g?m?3) was analysed. The number of prevented cases for all internal causes mortality attributed to the short-term (1 or 2 days) Anacetrapib exposure is quantified considering that no exceedances to the limit value will occur. The results for each district are presented in Figure 11.